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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-08-05T22:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-08-05T22:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26363/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible in the west of SOHO LASCO C2/C3. STEREO A COR2 imagery not available at the start of this CME. Associated with an X1.6 flare and eruption from AR 3386 (N11W75) with opening field lines, an EUV wave, and post-eruptive arcades best seen in SDO AIA 171/193. No clear arrival signature confirming the arrival of this CME seen at L1, but there is a slight possibility of that there is a glancing blow signature ~2023-08-08T01Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-08-08T02:30Z (-4.0h, +12.0h)
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 1120
Longitude (deg): 44W
Latitude (deg): 15N
Half-angular width (deg): 47N 

Notes: Preliminary fits for X1.6 from AR3389. Gaps in imagery near release lead to low confidence in fit.
Space weather advisor: Luca Greenough / Tabatha St Vincent

Lead Time: 32.13 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-08-06T18:22Z

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